After peaking in March 1985, the real value of the dollar fell sharply for almost three years. Despite this precipitous decline, U.S. net exports continued to fall until late in 1987, when they finally began to rise. During the two and a half years in which U.S. net exports continued to decline despite the rapid depreciation of the dollar, the public and policymakers expressed increasing skepticism about economists’ predictions that the depreciation would lead to more net exports. Initially, economists responded by saying that, because of the J curve, there would be some delay between the depreciation of the dol- lar and the improvement in net exports. By 1987, however, even the strongest believers in the J curve had begun to wonder whether net exports would ever begin to rise. Finally, U.S. real net exports did recover substantially, although they remained negative.
Andrew B. Abel, Ben Bernanke, Dean Croushore "Macroeconomics 8th Edition" 2013,491